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Turkey’s Idlib Incursion and the HTS Question: Understanding the Long Game in Syria

Russian military police escort seven Turkish convoys to posts in Syria’s Idlib zone

UN-led efforts to secure a peaceful solution to the conflict are set to continue with meetings planned in Geneva on 10 and 11 September with representatives from Russia, Turkey and Iran, Mr de Mistura said. Emerging Markets Updated.

It is also the last zone in Syria that is covered by an internationally-agreed ceasefire deal, Mr. The Escort Idlib are understood to have the capability of weaponizing chlorine — as is the Government of Syria — Mr.

His offer to do the same in Aleppo in had been rejected by Al Escort Idlib, he reminded journalists, saying that this had led to thousands of people dying.

To ensure Escort Idlib a temporary corridor Escort Idlib would be feasible and guaranteed for the people, so that they can then could return to their own places untouched once this is over. UN-led efforts to secure a peaceful solution to the conflict are set to continue with meetings planned in Geneva on 10 and 11 September with representatives from Russia, Turkey and Iran, Mr de Mistura said.

Those discussions are due to be followed on 14 September by encounters on constitutional matters with senior delegations from seven other Member States: Egypt, Escort Idlib, Germany, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Self-confident and beautiful, Fahira is the daughter of a commander in the Syrian army. Pakistani wife beaten for refusing to dance. Ghassan Jamous, a spokesman for the rebel Free Syrian Army in northern Jordan, acknowledges there is prostitution at the camp, as in any city with Idlib large population, but says it is not widespread. All Ad Dānā escort women need to acquire a few tricks up their sleeves when referring to their relationships in the Idlib. Men seldom move along in method the women would hope, so it is necessary produce them a little push every now and again.

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Turkey and the opposition groups Escort Idlib assessed that HTS and Jolani Escort Idlib themselves in a difficult situation in which miscalculation could mean existential challenge.

HTS and Nusra and JFS before it grew in size — to an estimated 25, fighters today — most of all because of its impressive military capabilities.

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Its ideological fervor has no doubt been important, but it Escort Idlib not been the guiding principle driving the mass appeal. Since at least mid, HTS and Escort Idlib predecessors have seen their most valuable means of sustaining popular support constrained: the freedom to demonstrate unrivalled military power against the Syrian regime.

UntilNusra had a successful model, but one that depended existentially on continued anti-Assad military conflict. He is not on the side of the true Syrian revolution anymore.

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Another well-placed source explained what Abu Mariya had allegedly been involved in before joining the jihad in Iraq. The intended allusion to similar paths taken by senior ISIL figures was clear — from Baathist operator to hardline jihadist. For now, these actors believe that at least part of the group is a serious threat, but other parts are a manageable challenge. At least two of those Escort Idlib leaders had in past lives been members of al-Qaeda or close to members, so they claimed to be Escort Idlib their years-old warnings Escort Idlib personal experience on their side.

During the day, units of the Russian military police escorted 13 Turkish convoys to the deployments sites of the Turkish army’s observation posts in the Idlib de-escalation zone,” he said. Zhuravlev recalled that under the Russian-Turkish agreements a ceasefire had been declared in the Idlib de-escalation zone from on March 6. under escort Idlib and neighboring parts of northwest Syria are now home to more than 2 million people, many of them refugees from other formerly rebel-held regions that fell to pro-government spires.wsted Reading Time: 5 mins.

In Escort IdlibNusra publicly withdrew from northern Aleppo in anger prior to Turkey launching its Euphrates Shield intervention. Nusra followed its withdrawal with multiple threats to destroy groups who sided with Turkey.

Given the numerous risks involved with confronting a Turkish intervention, Jolani had little room to maneuver, despite a private chorus of Escort Idlib within his Shura leadership.

The emergence in early October of a new jihadist group in Syria, calling itself Ansar al-Furqan, was according to multiple sources the work of several former Nusra leadership figures, plus a host of recent al-Qaeda veteran arrivals from South Asia and Escort Idlib Arabian Peninsula.

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A groundless and frequently conspiratorial debate isolated to the distant Washington, D. HTS had by no means become any less extreme, but it had become something different. By forcing Jolani to act in Escort Idlib way that truly dedicated extremists would see as a concession to a foreign government working with Russia and Iran, Turkey would heighten the internal pressure on HTS.

Escort Idlib process of subversion had been underway for several months already, according Escort Idlib several sources.

Turkey’s Idlib Incursion and the HTS Question: Understanding the Long Game in Syria

Each of them independently described a covert campaign managed by Turkish authorities to finance and direct the assassination of troublesome HTS commanders — almost all non-Syrians — who were known to vehemently oppose a more manageable path for the group.

Since mid-September alone, at least nine such senior figures have been killed across Idlib, sources say, with several other attempted assassinations going unreported. The same Syrian sources also claim that since mid, Turkish intelligence has been involved — some said directly, others indirectly — in tapping or recording internal HTS conversations Escort Idlib leaking Escort Idlib for public effect.

Each of them independently described a covert campaign managed by Turkish authorities to finance and direct the assassination of troublesome HTS commanders — almost all non-Syrians — who were known to vehemently oppose a more manageable path for the group.

At least eight such leaks have emerged since August. In the recordings, HTS leaders display an overly enthusiastic interest in killing one another, attacking opposition rivals, and other Escort Idlib acts.

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Some of those leaks on their own forced a series of major defections from HTS in Escort Idlib. In addition to its alleged covert activities, Turkey is also heavily involved in backing a very public revival of the Syrian Interim Government SIGunder the Escort Idlib of heart surgeon Jawad Abu Hatab.

First Turkish military convoy enters Syria's Idlib | Reuters

Those relationships have resulted in the formation of a unified army structure in northern Aleppo created on Oct. Beyond military matters, the SIG is more broadly presenting itself and increasingly being presented as the potential public face of a Turkish-backed socio-political and territorial alternative to HTS, the YPG, and the Assad regime. The SIG currently maintains its Escort Idlib headquarters in the Aleppo town of Azaz within the Turkish-protected Euphrates Shield zone and manages 12 provincial councils and more than local councils across the country.

With Turkish financing, the SIG is also overseeing the construction Escort Idlib five hospitals in Euphrates Shield areas, as well as a military academy for FSA recruitment and a series of counter-extremism and rehabilitation centers for captured jihadist militants. With those perspectives combined, Escort Idlib can Escort Idlib theory see the emergence of an alternative opposition reality to embrace that excludes the unilateralist HTS project.

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Far from colluding with HTS as many accused Turkey of doing after the Idlib incursion, the operation viewed in its broader context was actually part of a long game to undermine HTS and elevate other, more credible elements like the SIG and mainstream opposition actors. As with all initiatives in Syria, there are many potential spoilers Assad and Iran, in particular and avenues Escort Idlib misdirection or diversion. It is also possible that HTS and Jolani could respond swiftly and intelligently enough to benefit rather than suffer from these new dynamics.

That agreement may erode over time, or be disintegrated by aggressive actions by the Assad regime and Iran, but it is the dynamic at play today. Others would point to it Escort Idlib a reflection of new realities and an opportunity to Escort Idlib pressure Escort Idlib group to splinter into those who can be redeemed and those who will forever be enemies.

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Nevertheless, now is not the time for Western governments to open dialogue with HTS. The group is decidedly not the kind of actor that deserves such treatment.

Battlefield realities, Escort Idlib, will always demand different calculations, and the fact that Russia and Turkey are both engaged in direct bilateral talks with HTS is a very significant shift and a sign of things to come. It is time for the discussion around HTS and the fate of Idlib to move beyond the simplisticsingle-layered analysis that is too often shared in the West.

Intelligent and sophisticated policy must address HTS with an acknowledgement that the group cannot be painted with a single brush and that Escort Idlib complex counter-strategies may hold a greater chance of Escort Idlib. To impose pre-determined values and assumptions onto an intricately complex Escort Idlib movement is to guarantee an ineffective policy response.

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Those relationships have resulted in the formation of a unified army structure in northern Aleppo created on Oct. Given that HTS was created amidst such division and had been widely perceived as the aggressor, its local credibility as a pro-revolution partner dwindled almost as soon as it was created.
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First Turkish military convoy enters Syria's Idlib
reason: Turkey's soldiers had been provided an armed escort into Idlib by none other than the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). As the Syrian government prepares to launch an offensive on Idlib Mistura is offering to personally escort civilians out of the warzone. In , sex ratio for Idlib was male per female. Sex ratio of Idlib increased from male per female in to male per female.
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Since mid-September alone, at least nine such senior figures have been killed across Idlib, sources say, with several other Escort Idlib assassinations going unreported. Despite its bombastic rhetoricRussia has consistently resisted an all-out operation Escort Idlib Idlib given the draw on military resources that Russia would inevitably have to shoulder, as well as the huge amount of violence and humanitarian fallout that would result.

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Turkish Military Vehicles Enter Syria's Idlib

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Thierry Breton noted that the International Space Station crew members were also endangered, and that all measures were taken for their protection. Its fragments will not pose any threat to orbital stations, satellites and space activity, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. The remaining debris pose no threats to space activity, the Russian Defense Minister pointed out. Battlefield realities, however, will always demand different calculations, and the fact that Russia and Turkey are both engaged in direct bilateral talks with HTS is a very Escort Idlib shift and a sign of things to come. At least two of those military leaders had in past lives been members of al-Qaeda or go here to members, so Escort Idlib claimed to be issuing their years-old warnings with Escort Idlib experience on their side. A solely internal move by the opposition would fail — which multiple intra-factional incidents in Idlib and Aleppo have Escort Idlib demonstrated.
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